Carti gerd gigerenzer

Metode euristice simple pentru decizii

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Gerd Gigerenzer, Peter Todd, The ABC Research Group

Metode euristice simple pentru decizii inteligente.

Editura: Publica

Anul aparitiei: 2010

La scrierea acestei cărţi au participat cercetători din domenii diferite care de regulă nu interacţionează: psihologie, matematică, informatică, economie şi biologie evoluţionistă. Iar rezultatul acestei colaborări, pe cât de paradoxale, pe atât de necesare, respectă promisiunea din titlu: înainte de a le propune cititorilor un set de metode euristice, autorii au apelat ei înşişi la metode de analiză care, pornind de la adevăruri general recunoscute, ajung la adevăruri noi. În Metode euristice simple pentru decizii inteligente, autorii propun o deplasare dinspre calcul riguros către probabilitate, punând în centru adaptarea la context. Asta pentru simplul motiv că deciziile pe care le avem de luat în viaţa de zi cu zi nu au cum să fie descrise doar în funcţie de coordonatele cantitative şi matematice ale calculului probabilistic. Donald A. Norman, University of California, San Diego "Cartea aceasta este o contribuţie majoră la teoria raţiunii limitate. Ea demonstrează că eficienţa surprinzătoare a procedurilor simple şi rapide se datorează adaptării lor la structura mediului în care sunt folosite." Reinhard Selten, laureat al ...

  

Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive

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Gerd Gigerenzer

Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You

Editura: Simon & Schuster

Anul aparitiei: 2002

At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics. Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions ...

  

Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious

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Gerd Gigerenzer

Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious

Editura: Penguin Books

Anul aparitiei: 2008

Why is split second decision-making superior to deliberation? Gut Feelings delivers the science behind Malcolm Gladwell's Blink Reflection and reason are overrated, according to renowned psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer. Much better qualified to help us make decisions is the cognitive, emotional, and social repertoire we call intuition?a suite of gut feelings that have evolved over the millennia specifically for making decisions. ?Gladwell drew heavily on Gigerenzer's research. But Gigerenzer goes a step further by explaining just why our gut instincts are so often right. Intuition, it seems, is not some sort of mystical chemical reaction but a neurologically based behavior that evolved to ensure that we humans respond quickly when faced with a dilemma? (BusinessWeek).

  

Dance with Chance: Making Luck Work for You

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Anil Gaba, Spyros Makridakis, Robin Hogarth

Dance with Chance: Making Luck Work for You

Editura: Oneworld Publications

Anul aparitiei: 2010

"Written by true experts. Informative yet so much fun to read " Nassim Nicholas Taleb author of The Black Swan "Easy-to-digest and highly competent. If everyone were to read this book, the world would become a more enlightened place." Gerd Gigerenzer author of Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconsious Uneasy with how chance determines a huge part of our lives, we try to control what cannot be controlled and predict what cannot be predicted. It s a self-delusion that can have serious consequences for our personal finances, careers, happiness and health. Dance with Chance explains how we all fall foul of this Illusion of Control. Fortunately, when we understand how luck operates, we can lessen its ill effects. By learning when to cede control over certain aspects of our life, paradoxically, we gain more control. By making small changes to our lifestyle, we can make a huge difference to the things that matter to us. From simple investment strategies to warning against health screenings, the authors offer revolutionary and often counterintuitive advice to make luck work for you. You ll find out why millions of deaths are caused each year by medical negligence and why a ...

  

Gut Feelings: Short Cuts to Better Decision Making

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Gerd Gigerenzer (Author)

Gut Feelings: Short Cuts to Better Decision Making

Editura: PENGUIN GROUP

Anul aparitiei: 2008

  

Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart

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Gerd Gigerenzer (Author)

Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart

Editura: OXFORD UNIV PR

Anul aparitiei: 2000

Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart invites readers to embark on a new journey into a land of rationality that differs from the familiar territory of cognitive science and economics. Traditional views of rationality tend to see decision makers as possessing superhuman powers of reason, limitless knowledge, and all of eternity in which to ponder choices. To understand decisions in the real world, we need a different, more psychologically plausible notion of rationality, and this book provides it. It is about fast and frugal heuristics--simple rules for making decisions when time is pressing and deep thought an unaffordable luxury. These heuristics can enable both living organisms and artificial systems to make smart choices, classifications, and predictions by employing bounded rationality. But when and how can such fast and frugal heuristics work? Can judgments based simply on one good reason be as accurate as those based on many reasons? Could less knowledge even lead to systematically better predictions than more knowledge? Simple Heuristics explores these questions, developing computational models of heuristics and testing them through experiments and analyses. It shows how ...

  

Evolution and Cognition Series

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Gerd Gigerenzer (Author)

Evolution and Cognition Series

Editura: OXFORD UNIV PR

Anul aparitiei: 2002

Where do new ideas come from? What is social intelligence? Why do social scientists perform mindless statistical rituals? This vital book is about rethinking rationality as adaptive thinking: to understand how minds cope with their environments, both ecological and social. Gerd Gigerenzer proposes and illustrates a bold new research program that investigates the psychology of rationality, introducing the concepts of ecological, bounded, and social rationality. His path-breaking collection takes research on thinking, social intelligence, creativity, and decision-making out of an ethereal world where the laws of logic and probability reign, and places it into our real world of human behavior and interaction. Adaptive Thinking is accessibly written for general readers with an interest in psychology, cognitive science, economics, sociology, philosophy, artificial intelligence, and animal behavior. It also teaches a practical audience, such as physicians, AIDS counselors, and experts in criminal law, how to understand and communicate uncertainties and risks.

  

Rationality for Mortals: How People Cope with

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Gerd Gigerenzer (Author)

Rationality for Mortals: How People Cope with Uncertainty

Editura: OXFORD UNIV PR

Anul aparitiei: 2008

Gerd Gigerenzer's influential work examines the rationality of individuals not from the perspective of logic or probability, but from the point of view of adaptation to the real world of human behavior and interaction with the environment. Seen from this perspective, human behavior is more rational than it might otherwise appear. This work is extremely influential and has spawned an entire research program. This volume (which follows on a previous collection, Adaptive Thinking, also published by OUP) collects his most recent articles, looking at how people use "fast and frugal heuristics" to calculate probability and risk and make decisions. It includes a newly writen, substantial introduction, and the articles have been revised and updated where appropriate. This volume should appeal, like the earlier volumes, to a broad mixture of cognitive psychologists, philosophers, economists, and others who study decision making.

  

Heuristics: The Foundations of Adaptive Behavior

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Gerd Gigerenzer (Editor)

Heuristics: The Foundations of Adaptive Behavior

Editura: OXFORD UNIV PR

Anul aparitiei: 2011

How do people make decisions when time is limited, information unreliable, and the future uncertain? Based on the work of Nobel laureate Herbert Simon and with the help of colleagues around the world, the Adaptive Behavior and Cognition (ABC) Group at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin has developed a research program on simple heuristics, also known as fast and frugal heuristics. In the social sciences, heuristics have been believed to be generally inferior to complex methods for inference, or even irrational. Although this may be true in small worlds where everything is known for certain, we show that in the actual world in which we live, full of uncertainties and surprises, heuristics are indispensable and often more accurate than complex methods. Contrary to a deeply entrenched belief, complex problems do not necessitate complex computations. Less can be more. Simple heuristics exploit the information structure of the environment, and thus embody ecological rather than logical rationality. Simon (1999) applauded this new program as a revolution in cognitive science, striking a great blow for sanity in the approach to human rationality. By providing a fresh ...

  

Rationality for Mortals: How People Cope with

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Gerd Gigerenzer (Author)

Rationality for Mortals: How People Cope with Uncertainty

Editura: OXFORD UNIV PR

Anul aparitiei: 2010

Gerd Gigerenzer's influential work examines the rationality of individuals not from the perspective of logic or probability, but from the point of view of adaptation to the real world of human behavior and interaction with the environment. Seen from this perspective, human behavior is more rational than it might otherwise appear. This work is extremely influential and has spawned an entire research program. This volume collects recent articles, looking at how people use "fast and frugal heuristics" to calculate probability and risk and make decisions. It includes the revised articles and newly written introduction that were first published in the hardcover edition. Its appeal is to a mixture of cognitive psychologists, philosophers, economists, and others who study decision making. "Gerd Gigerenzer has created new, pathbreaking ways of thinking about human rationality. His ideas build on one another and are best seen as part of a coherent whole that is when the nature of his arguments emerges most clearly."-- Leda Cosmides, University of California Santa Barbara

  

Models of a Man: Essays in Memory of Herbert A.

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James G. March (Editor)

Models of a Man: Essays in Memory of Herbert A. Simon

Editura: MIT PR

Anul aparitiei: 2004

Essays that pay tribute to the wide-ranging influence of the late Herbert Simon, by friends and colleagues.Herbert Simon (1916-2001), in the course of a long and distinguished career in the social and behavioral sciences, made lasting contributions to many disciplines, including economics, psychology, computer science, and artificial intelligence. In 1978 he was awarded the Nobel Prize in economics for his research into the decision-making process within economic organizations. His well-known book The Sciences of the Artificial addresses the implications of the decision-making and problem-solving processes for the social sciences.This book (the title is a variation on the title of Simon's autobiography, Models of My Life) is a collection of short essays, all original, by colleagues from many fields who felt Simon's influence and mourn his loss. Mixing reminiscence and analysis, the book represents "a small acknowledgment of a large debt."Each of the more than forty contributors was asked to write about the one work by Simon that he or she had found most influential. The editors then grouped the essays into four sections: "Modeling Man," "Organizations and Administration," "Modeling ...

  

Better Doctors, Better Patients, Better Decisions:

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Gerd Gigerenzer (Editor)

Better Doctors, Better Patients, Better Decisions: Envisioning Health Care 2020

Editura: MIT PR

Anul aparitiei: 2011

How eliminating "risk illiteracy" among doctors and patients will lead to better health care decision making.Contrary to popular opinion, one of the main problems in providing uniformly excellent health care is not lack of money but lack of knowledge -- on the part of both doctors and patients. The studies in this book show that many doctors and most patients do not understand the available medical evidence. Both patients and doctors are "risk illiterate" -- frequently unable to tell the difference between actual risk and relative risk. Further, unwarranted disparity in treatment decisions is the rule rather than the exception in the United States and Europe. All of this contributes to much wasted spending in health care.The contributors to Better Doctors, Better Patients, Better Decisions investigate the roots of the problem, from the emphasis in medical research on technology and blockbuster drugs to the lack of education for both doctors and patients. They call for a new, more enlightened health care, with better medical education, journals that report study outcomes completely and transparently, and patients in control of their personal medical records, not afraid of statistics ...

  

Heuristics and the Law

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Gerd Gigerenzer (Editor)

Heuristics and the Law

Editura: MIT PR

Anul aparitiei: 2006

Experts in law, psychology, and economics explore the power of "fast and frugal" heuristics in the creation and implementation of lawIn recent decades, the economists' concept of rational choice has dominated legal reasoning. And yet, in practical terms, neither the lawbreakers the law addresses nor officers of the law behave as the hyperrational beings postulated by rational choice. Critics of rational choice and believers in "fast and frugal heuristics" propose another approach: using certain formulations or general principles (heuristics) to help navigate in an environment that is not a well-ordered setting with an occasional disturbance, as described in the language of rational choice, but instead is fundamentally uncertain or characterized by an unmanageable degree of complexity. This is the intuition behind behavioral law and economics. In Heuristics and the Law, experts in law, psychology, and economics explore the conceptual and practical power of the heuristics approach in law. They discuss legal theory; modeling and predicting the problems the law purports to solve; the process of making law, in the legislature or in the courtroom; the application of existing law in the ...

  

Bounded Rationality: The Adaptive Toolbox

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Gerd Gigerenzer (Editor)

Bounded Rationality: The Adaptive Toolbox

Editura: MIT PR

Anul aparitiei: 2002

In a complex and uncertain world, humans and animals make decisions under the constraints of limited knowledge, resources, and time. Yet models of rational decision making in economics, cognitive science, biology, and other fields largely ignore these real constraints and instead assume agents with perfect information and unlimited time. About forty years ago, Herbert Simon challenged this view with his notion of "bounded rationality." Today, bounded rationality has become a fashionable term used for disparate views of reasoning.This book promotes bounded rationality as the key to understanding how real people make decisions. Using the concept of an "adaptive toolbox," a repertoire of fast and frugal rules for decision making under uncertainty, it attempts to impose more order and coherence on the idea of bounded rationality. The contributors view bounded rationality neither as optimization under constraints nor as the study of people's reasoning fallacies. The strategies in the adaptive toolbox dispense with optimization and, for the most part, with calculations of probabilities and utilities. The book extends the concept of bounded rationality from cognitive tools to emotions; it ...

  

The Probabilistic Revolution, Volume 1: Ideas in

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Lorenz Kruger (Editor)

The Probabilistic Revolution, Volume 1: Ideas in History

Editura: MIT PR

Anul aparitiei: 1990

Probability ideas are the success story common to the growth of the modern natural and social sciences. Chance, indeterminism, and statistical inference have radically and globally transformed the sciences in a "probabilistic revolution." This monumental work traces the rise, the transformation, and the diffusion of probabilistic and statistical thinking in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. It is less concerned with specific technical discoveries than with locating the probability revolution historically within a larger framework of ideas. There is no comparable study that treats the rise of probability and statistics in such scope and depth.The contributors - scientists, historians and philosophers from eight countries - make it possible for readers trained in many disciplines to see why the probabilistic revolution has been so complete and so successful, and how the rejection of uniform causality by quantum physics, the stochastic nature of evolutionary biology, the indeterminisms of human psychology, and the random processes of many economic activities are all manifestations of an underlying unifying concept.Volume 1 opens with provocative essays on scientific ...

  

Moral Psychology, Volume 2: The Cognitive Science

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Walter Sinnott-Armstrong (Editor)

Moral Psychology, Volume 2: The Cognitive Science of Morality: Intuition and Diversity

Editura: MIT PR

Anul aparitiei: 2008

For much of the twentieth century, philosophy and science went their separate ways. In moral philosophy, fear of the so-called naturalistic fallacy kept moral philosophers from incorporating developments in biology and psychology. Since the 1990s, however, many philosophers have drawn on recent advances in cognitive psychology, brain science, and evolutionary psychology to inform their work. This collaborative trend is especially strong in moral philosophy, and these three volumes bring together some of the most innovative work by both philosophers and psychologists in this emerging interdisciplinary field. The contributors to volume 2 discuss recent empirical research that uses the diverse methods of cognitive science to investigate moral judgments, emotions, and actions. Each chapter includes an essay, comments on the essay by other scholars, and a reply by the author(s) of the original essay. Topics include moral intuitions as a kind of fast and frugal heuristics, framing effects in moral judgments, an analogy between Chomsky's universal grammar and moral principles, the role of emotions in moral beliefs, moral disagreements, the semantics of moral language, and moral ...

  

Bounded Rationality and Politics

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Jonathan Bendor (Author)

Bounded Rationality and Politics

Editura: UNIV OF CALIFORNIA PR

Anul aparitiei: 2010

In Bounded Rationality and Politics, Jonathan Bendor considers two schools of behavioral economics--the first guided by Tversky and Kahneman's work on heuristics and biases, which focuses on the mistakes people make in judgment and choice; the second as described by Gerd Gigerenzer's program on fast and frugal heuristics, which emphasizes the effectiveness of simple rules of thumb. Finding each of these radically incomplete, Bendor's illuminating analysis proposes Herbert Simon's pathbreaking work on bounded rationality as a way to reconcile the inconsistencies between the two camps. Bendor shows that Simon's theory turns on the interplay between the cognitive constraints of decision makers and the complexity of their tasks.

  

Bounded Rationality and Politics

Stoc anticariat
ce trebuie reconfirmat

Jonathan Bendor (Author)

Bounded Rationality and Politics

Editura: UNIV OF CALIFORNIA PR

Anul aparitiei: 2010

In Bounded Rationality and Politics, Jonathan Bendor considers two schools of behavioral economics--the first guided by Tversky and Kahneman's work on heuristics and biases, which focuses on the mistakes people make in judgment and choice; the second as described by Gerd Gigerenzer's program on fast and frugal heuristics, which emphasizes the effectiveness of simple rules of thumb. Finding each of these radically incomplete, Bendor's illuminating analysis proposes Herbert Simon's pathbreaking work on bounded rationality as a way to reconcile the inconsistencies between the two camps. Bendor shows that Simon's theory turns on the interplay between the cognitive constraints of decision makers and the complexity of their tasks.

  

Empire of Chance: How Probability Changed Science

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Gerd Gigerenzer (Author)

Empire of Chance: How Probability Changed Science and Everyday Life

Editura: CAMBRIDGE UNIV PR

Anul aparitiei: 1990

This book tells how quantitative ideas of chance have transformed the natural and social sciences as well as everyday life over the past three centuries. A continuous narrative connects the earliest application of probability and statistics in gambling and insurance to the most recent forays into law, medicine, polling, and baseball. Separate chapters explore the theoretical and methodological impact on biology, physics, and psychology. In contrast to the literature on the mathematical development of probability and statistics, this book centers on how these technical innovations recreated our conceptions of nature, mind, and society.

  

Bildungsforscher: Gerd Gigerenzer, Ulrich

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