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Gut Feelings: Short Cuts to Better Decision Making

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Gerd Gigerenzer (Author)

Gut Feelings: Short Cuts to Better Decision Making

Editura: PENGUIN GROUP

Anul aparitiei: 2008

  

Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart

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Gerd Gigerenzer (Author)

Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart

Editura: OXFORD UNIV PR

Anul aparitiei: 2000

Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart invites readers to embark on a new journey into a land of rationality that differs from the familiar territory of cognitive science and economics. Traditional views of rationality tend to see decision makers as possessing superhuman powers of reason, limitless knowledge, and all of eternity in which to ponder choices. To understand decisions in the real world, we need a different, more psychologically plausible notion of rationality, and this book provides it. It is about fast and frugal heuristics--simple rules for making decisions when time is pressing and deep thought an unaffordable luxury. These heuristics can enable both living organisms and artificial systems to make smart choices, classifications, and predictions by employing bounded rationality. But when and how can such fast and frugal heuristics work? Can judgments based simply on one good reason be as accurate as those based on many reasons? Could less knowledge even lead to systematically better predictions than more knowledge? Simple Heuristics explores these questions, developing computational models of heuristics and testing them through experiments and analyses. It shows how ...

  

Evolution and Cognition Series

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Gerd Gigerenzer (Author)

Evolution and Cognition Series

Editura: OXFORD UNIV PR

Anul aparitiei: 2002

Where do new ideas come from? What is social intelligence? Why do social scientists perform mindless statistical rituals? This vital book is about rethinking rationality as adaptive thinking: to understand how minds cope with their environments, both ecological and social. Gerd Gigerenzer proposes and illustrates a bold new research program that investigates the psychology of rationality, introducing the concepts of ecological, bounded, and social rationality. His path-breaking collection takes research on thinking, social intelligence, creativity, and decision-making out of an ethereal world where the laws of logic and probability reign, and places it into our real world of human behavior and interaction. Adaptive Thinking is accessibly written for general readers with an interest in psychology, cognitive science, economics, sociology, philosophy, artificial intelligence, and animal behavior. It also teaches a practical audience, such as physicians, AIDS counselors, and experts in criminal law, how to understand and communicate uncertainties and risks.

  

Rationality for Mortals: How People Cope with

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Gerd Gigerenzer (Author)

Rationality for Mortals: How People Cope with Uncertainty

Editura: OXFORD UNIV PR

Anul aparitiei: 2008

Gerd Gigerenzer's influential work examines the rationality of individuals not from the perspective of logic or probability, but from the point of view of adaptation to the real world of human behavior and interaction with the environment. Seen from this perspective, human behavior is more rational than it might otherwise appear. This work is extremely influential and has spawned an entire research program. This volume (which follows on a previous collection, Adaptive Thinking, also published by OUP) collects his most recent articles, looking at how people use "fast and frugal heuristics" to calculate probability and risk and make decisions. It includes a newly writen, substantial introduction, and the articles have been revised and updated where appropriate. This volume should appeal, like the earlier volumes, to a broad mixture of cognitive psychologists, philosophers, economists, and others who study decision making.

  

Rationality for Mortals: How People Cope with

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Gerd Gigerenzer (Author)

Rationality for Mortals: How People Cope with Uncertainty

Editura: OXFORD UNIV PR

Anul aparitiei: 2010

Gerd Gigerenzer's influential work examines the rationality of individuals not from the perspective of logic or probability, but from the point of view of adaptation to the real world of human behavior and interaction with the environment. Seen from this perspective, human behavior is more rational than it might otherwise appear. This work is extremely influential and has spawned an entire research program. This volume collects recent articles, looking at how people use "fast and frugal heuristics" to calculate probability and risk and make decisions. It includes the revised articles and newly written introduction that were first published in the hardcover edition. Its appeal is to a mixture of cognitive psychologists, philosophers, economists, and others who study decision making. "Gerd Gigerenzer has created new, pathbreaking ways of thinking about human rationality. His ideas build on one another and are best seen as part of a coherent whole that is when the nature of his arguments emerges most clearly."-- Leda Cosmides, University of California Santa Barbara

  

Empire of Chance: How Probability Changed Science

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Gerd Gigerenzer (Author)

Empire of Chance: How Probability Changed Science and Everyday Life

Editura: CAMBRIDGE UNIV PR

Anul aparitiei: 1990

This book tells how quantitative ideas of chance have transformed the natural and social sciences as well as everyday life over the past three centuries. A continuous narrative connects the earliest application of probability and statistics in gambling and insurance to the most recent forays into law, medicine, polling, and baseball. Separate chapters explore the theoretical and methodological impact on biology, physics, and psychology. In contrast to the literature on the mathematical development of probability and statistics, this book centers on how these technical innovations recreated our conceptions of nature, mind, and society.

  

Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious

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Gerd Gigerenzer (Author)

Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious

Editura: TANTOR MEDIA INC

Anul aparitiei: 2007

Gerd Gigerenzer is one of the researchers of behavioral intuition responsible for the science behind

  

Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious

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Gerd Gigerenzer (Author)

Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious

Editura: TANTOR MEDIA INC

Anul aparitiei: 2007

Gerd Gigerenzer is one of the researchers of behavioral intuition responsible for the science behind

  

Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious

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Gerd Gigerenzer (Author)

Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious

Editura: TANTOR MEDIA INC

Anul aparitiei: 2007

Gerd Gigerenzer is one of the researchers of behavioral intuition responsible for the science behind Malcolm Gladwell's bestseller Blink. Gladwell showed us how snap decisions often yield better results than careful analysis. Now, Gigerenzer explains why our intuition is such a powerful decision-making tool. Drawing on a decade of research at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Gigerenzer demonstrates that our gut feelings are actually the result of unconscious mental processes-processes that apply rules of thumb that we've derived from our environment and prior experiences. The value of these unconscious rules lies precisely in their difference from rational analysis-they take into account only the most useful bits of information rather than attempting to evaluate all possible factors. By examining various decisions we make-how we choose a spouse, a stock, a medical procedure, or the answer to a million-dollar game show question-Gigerenzer shows how gut feelings not only lead to good practical decisions but also underlie the moral choices that make our society function. In the tradition of Blink and Freakonomics, Gut Feelings is an exploration of the myriad influences ...

  

Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions

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Gerd Gigerenzer (Author)

Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions

Editura: PENGUIN GROUP

Anul aparitiei: 2015

A new eye-opener on how we can make better decisions--by the author of Gut Feelings In this age of big data we often trust that expert analysis--whether it's about next year's stock market or a person's risk of getting cancer--is accurate. But, as risk expert Gerd Gigerenzer reveals in his latest book, Risk Savvy, most of us, including doctors, lawyers, and financial advisors, often misunderstand statistics, leaving us misinformed and vulnerable to exploitation. Yet there's hope. In Risk Savvy, Gigerenzer gives us an essential guide to the science of good decision making, showing how ordinary people can make better decisions for their money, their health, and their families. Here, Gigerenzer delivers the surprising conclusion that the best results often come from considering less information and listening to your gut.

  

Simply Rational: Decision Making in the Real World

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Gerd Gigerenzer (Author)

Simply Rational: Decision Making in the Real World

Editura: OXFORD UNIV PR

Anul aparitiei: 2015

Statistical illiteracy can have an enormously negative impact on decision making. This volume of collected papers brings together applied and theoretical research on risks and decision making across the fields of medicine, psychology, and economics. Collectively, the essays demonstrate why the frame in which statistics are communicated is essential for broader understanding and sound decision making, and that understanding risks and uncertainty has wide-reaching implications for daily life. Gerd Gigerenzer provides a lucid review and catalog of concrete instances of heuristics, or rules of thumb, that people and animals rely on to make decisions under uncertainty, explaining why these are very often more rational than probability models. After a critical look at behavioral theories that do not model actual psychological processes, the book concludes with a call for a "heuristic revolution" that will enable us to understand the ecological rationality of both statistics and heuristics, and bring a dose of sanity to the study of rationality.

  

Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions

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Gerd Gigerenzer (Author)

Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions

Editura: PENGUIN GROUP

Anul aparitiei: 2014

An eye-opening look at the ways we misjudge risk every day and a guide to making better decisions wi

  

Cognition as Intuitive Statistics

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Gerd Gigerenzer (Author)

Cognition as Intuitive Statistics

Editura: TAYLOR & FRANCIS

Anul aparitiei: 2015

Originally published in 1987, this title is about theory construction in psychology. Where theories come from, as opposed to how they become established, was almost a no-man's land in the history and philosophy of science at the time. The authors argue that in the science of mind, theories are particularly likely to come from tools, and they are especially concerned with the emergence of the metaphor of the mind as an intuitive statistician. In the first chapter, the authors discuss the rise of the inference revolution, which institutionalized those statistical tools that later became theories of cognitive processes. In each of the four following chapters they treat one major topic of cognitive psychology and show to what degree statistical concepts transformed their understanding of those topics.

  

Heuristics: The Foundations of Adaptive Behavior

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Gerd Gigerenzer (Author)

Heuristics: The Foundations of Adaptive Behavior

Editura: OXFORD UNIV PR

Anul aparitiei: 2015

How do people make decisions when time is limited, information unreliable, and the future uncertain? Based on the work of Nobel laureate Herbert Simon and with the help of colleagues around the world, the Adaptive Behavior and Cognition (ABC) Group at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin has developed a research program on simple heuristics, also known as fast and frugal heuristics. In the social sciences, heuristics have been believed to be generally inferior to complex methods for inference, or even irrational. Although this may be true in "small worlds" where everything is known for certain, we show that in the actual world in which we live, full of uncertainties and surprises, heuristics are indispensable and often more accurate than complex methods. Contrary to a deeply entrenched belief, complex problems do not necessitate complex computations. Less can be more. Simple heuristics exploit the information structure of the environment, and thus embody ecological rather than logical rationality. Simon (1999) applauded this new program as a "revolution in cognitive science, striking a great blow for sanity in the approach to human rationality."By providing a ...

  

Cognition as Intuitive Statistics

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Gerd Gigerenzer (Author)

Cognition as Intuitive Statistics

Editura: YALE UNIV PR

Anul aparitiei: 2016

Originally published in 1987, this title is about theory construction in psychology. Where theories come from, as opposed to how they become established, was almost a no-man s land in the history and philosophy of science at the time. The authors argue that in the science of mind, theories are particularly likely to come from tools, and they are especially concerned with the emergence of the metaphor of the mind as an intuitive statistician. In the first chapter, the authors discuss the rise of the inference revolution, which institutionalized those statistical tools that later became theories of cognitive processes. In each of the four following chapters they treat one major topic of cognitive psychology and show to what degree statistical concepts transformed their understanding of those topics. "

  
 
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