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Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions

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Gerd Gigerenzer (Author)

Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions

Editura: PENGUIN GROUP

Anul aparitiei: 2014

An eye-opening look at the ways we misjudge risk every day and a guide to making better decisions wi

  

Cognition as Intuitive Statistics

Pret: 1387.00 RON
Disponibil in 14 zile!

Gerd Gigerenzer (Author)

Cognition as Intuitive Statistics

Editura: TAYLOR & FRANCIS

Anul aparitiei: 2015

Originally published in 1987, this title is about theory construction in psychology. Where theories come from, as opposed to how they become established, was almost a no-man's land in the history and philosophy of science at the time. The authors argue that in the science of mind, theories are particularly likely to come from tools, and they are especially concerned with the emergence of the metaphor of the mind as an intuitive statistician. In the first chapter, the authors discuss the rise of the inference revolution, which institutionalized those statistical tools that later became theories of cognitive processes. In each of the four following chapters they treat one major topic of cognitive psychology and show to what degree statistical concepts transformed their understanding of those topics.

  

Heuristics: The Foundations of Adaptive Behavior

Pret: 439.00 RON
Disponibil in 14 zile!

Gerd Gigerenzer (Author)

Heuristics: The Foundations of Adaptive Behavior

Editura: OXFORD UNIV PR

Anul aparitiei: 2015

How do people make decisions when time is limited, information unreliable, and the future uncertain? Based on the work of Nobel laureate Herbert Simon and with the help of colleagues around the world, the Adaptive Behavior and Cognition (ABC) Group at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin has developed a research program on simple heuristics, also known as fast and frugal heuristics. In the social sciences, heuristics have been believed to be generally inferior to complex methods for inference, or even irrational. Although this may be true in "small worlds" where everything is known for certain, we show that in the actual world in which we live, full of uncertainties and surprises, heuristics are indispensable and often more accurate than complex methods. Contrary to a deeply entrenched belief, complex problems do not necessitate complex computations. Less can be more. Simple heuristics exploit the information structure of the environment, and thus embody ecological rather than logical rationality. Simon (1999) applauded this new program as a "revolution in cognitive science, striking a great blow for sanity in the approach to human rationality."By providing a ...

  

Cognition as Intuitive Statistics

Pret: 450.00 RON
Disponibil in 14 zile!

Gerd Gigerenzer (Author)

Cognition as Intuitive Statistics

Editura: YALE UNIV PR

Anul aparitiei: 2016

Originally published in 1987, this title is about theory construction in psychology. Where theories come from, as opposed to how they become established, was almost a no-man s land in the history and philosophy of science at the time. The authors argue that in the science of mind, theories are particularly likely to come from tools, and they are especially concerned with the emergence of the metaphor of the mind as an intuitive statistician. In the first chapter, the authors discuss the rise of the inference revolution, which institutionalized those statistical tools that later became theories of cognitive processes. In each of the four following chapters they treat one major topic of cognitive psychology and show to what degree statistical concepts transformed their understanding of those topics. "

  
 
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