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Metode euristice simple pentru decizii

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Gerd Gigerenzer, Peter Todd, The ABC Research Group

Metode euristice simple pentru decizii inteligente.

Editura: Publica

Anul aparitiei: 2010

La scrierea acestei cărţi au participat cercetători din domenii diferite care de regulă nu interacţionează: psihologie, matematică, informatică, economie şi biologie evoluţionistă. Iar rezultatul acestei colaborări, pe cât de paradoxale, pe atât de necesare, respectă promisiunea din titlu: înainte de a le propune cititorilor un set de metode euristice, autorii au apelat ei înşişi la metode de analiză care, pornind de la adevăruri general recunoscute, ajung la adevăruri noi. În Metode euristice simple pentru decizii inteligente, autorii propun o deplasare dinspre calcul riguros către probabilitate, punând în centru adaptarea la context. Asta pentru simplul motiv că deciziile pe care le avem de luat în viaţa de zi cu zi nu au cum să fie descrise doar în funcţie de coordonatele cantitative şi matematice ale calculului probabilistic. Donald A. Norman, University of California, San Diego "Cartea aceasta este o contribuţie majoră la teoria raţiunii limitate. Ea demonstrează că eficienţa surprinzătoare a procedurilor simple şi rapide se datorează adaptării lor la structura mediului în care sunt folosite." Reinhard Selten, laureat al ...

  

Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive

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Gerd Gigerenzer

Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You

Editura: Simon & Schuster

Anul aparitiei: 2002

At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics. Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions ...

  

Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious

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Gerd Gigerenzer

Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious

Editura: Penguin Books

Anul aparitiei: 2008

Why is split second decision-making superior to deliberation? Gut Feelings delivers the science behind Malcolm Gladwell's Blink Reflection and reason are overrated, according to renowned psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer. Much better qualified to help us make decisions is the cognitive, emotional, and social repertoire we call intuition?a suite of gut feelings that have evolved over the millennia specifically for making decisions. ?Gladwell drew heavily on Gigerenzer's research. But Gigerenzer goes a step further by explaining just why our gut instincts are so often right. Intuition, it seems, is not some sort of mystical chemical reaction but a neurologically based behavior that evolved to ensure that we humans respond quickly when faced with a dilemma? (BusinessWeek).

  

Gut Feelings: Short Cuts to Better Decision Making

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Gerd Gigerenzer (Author)

Gut Feelings: Short Cuts to Better Decision Making

Editura: PENGUIN GROUP

Anul aparitiei: 2008

  

Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart

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Gerd Gigerenzer (Author)

Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart

Editura: OXFORD UNIV PR

Anul aparitiei: 2000

Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart invites readers to embark on a new journey into a land of rationality that differs from the familiar territory of cognitive science and economics. Traditional views of rationality tend to see decision makers as possessing superhuman powers of reason, limitless knowledge, and all of eternity in which to ponder choices. To understand decisions in the real world, we need a different, more psychologically plausible notion of rationality, and this book provides it. It is about fast and frugal heuristics--simple rules for making decisions when time is pressing and deep thought an unaffordable luxury. These heuristics can enable both living organisms and artificial systems to make smart choices, classifications, and predictions by employing bounded rationality. But when and how can such fast and frugal heuristics work? Can judgments based simply on one good reason be as accurate as those based on many reasons? Could less knowledge even lead to systematically better predictions than more knowledge? Simple Heuristics explores these questions, developing computational models of heuristics and testing them through experiments and analyses. It shows how ...

  

Evolution and Cognition Series

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Gerd Gigerenzer (Author)

Evolution and Cognition Series

Editura: OXFORD UNIV PR

Anul aparitiei: 2002

Where do new ideas come from? What is social intelligence? Why do social scientists perform mindless statistical rituals? This vital book is about rethinking rationality as adaptive thinking: to understand how minds cope with their environments, both ecological and social. Gerd Gigerenzer proposes and illustrates a bold new research program that investigates the psychology of rationality, introducing the concepts of ecological, bounded, and social rationality. His path-breaking collection takes research on thinking, social intelligence, creativity, and decision-making out of an ethereal world where the laws of logic and probability reign, and places it into our real world of human behavior and interaction. Adaptive Thinking is accessibly written for general readers with an interest in psychology, cognitive science, economics, sociology, philosophy, artificial intelligence, and animal behavior. It also teaches a practical audience, such as physicians, AIDS counselors, and experts in criminal law, how to understand and communicate uncertainties and risks.

  

Rationality for Mortals: How People Cope with

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Gerd Gigerenzer (Author)

Rationality for Mortals: How People Cope with Uncertainty

Editura: OXFORD UNIV PR

Anul aparitiei: 2008

Gerd Gigerenzer's influential work examines the rationality of individuals not from the perspective of logic or probability, but from the point of view of adaptation to the real world of human behavior and interaction with the environment. Seen from this perspective, human behavior is more rational than it might otherwise appear. This work is extremely influential and has spawned an entire research program. This volume (which follows on a previous collection, Adaptive Thinking, also published by OUP) collects his most recent articles, looking at how people use "fast and frugal heuristics" to calculate probability and risk and make decisions. It includes a newly writen, substantial introduction, and the articles have been revised and updated where appropriate. This volume should appeal, like the earlier volumes, to a broad mixture of cognitive psychologists, philosophers, economists, and others who study decision making.

  

Heuristics: The Foundations of Adaptive Behavior

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Gerd Gigerenzer (Editor)

Heuristics: The Foundations of Adaptive Behavior

Editura: OXFORD UNIV PR

Anul aparitiei: 2011

How do people make decisions when time is limited, information unreliable, and the future uncertain? Based on the work of Nobel laureate Herbert Simon and with the help of colleagues around the world, the Adaptive Behavior and Cognition (ABC) Group at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin has developed a research program on simple heuristics, also known as fast and frugal heuristics. In the social sciences, heuristics have been believed to be generally inferior to complex methods for inference, or even irrational. Although this may be true in small worlds where everything is known for certain, we show that in the actual world in which we live, full of uncertainties and surprises, heuristics are indispensable and often more accurate than complex methods. Contrary to a deeply entrenched belief, complex problems do not necessitate complex computations. Less can be more. Simple heuristics exploit the information structure of the environment, and thus embody ecological rather than logical rationality. Simon (1999) applauded this new program as a revolution in cognitive science, striking a great blow for sanity in the approach to human rationality. By providing a fresh ...

  

Rationality for Mortals: How People Cope with

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Gerd Gigerenzer (Author)

Rationality for Mortals: How People Cope with Uncertainty

Editura: OXFORD UNIV PR

Anul aparitiei: 2010

Gerd Gigerenzer's influential work examines the rationality of individuals not from the perspective of logic or probability, but from the point of view of adaptation to the real world of human behavior and interaction with the environment. Seen from this perspective, human behavior is more rational than it might otherwise appear. This work is extremely influential and has spawned an entire research program. This volume collects recent articles, looking at how people use "fast and frugal heuristics" to calculate probability and risk and make decisions. It includes the revised articles and newly written introduction that were first published in the hardcover edition. Its appeal is to a mixture of cognitive psychologists, philosophers, economists, and others who study decision making. "Gerd Gigerenzer has created new, pathbreaking ways of thinking about human rationality. His ideas build on one another and are best seen as part of a coherent whole that is when the nature of his arguments emerges most clearly."-- Leda Cosmides, University of California Santa Barbara

  

Better Doctors, Better Patients, Better Decisions:

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Gerd Gigerenzer (Editor)

Better Doctors, Better Patients, Better Decisions: Envisioning Health Care 2020

Editura: MIT PR

Anul aparitiei: 2011

How eliminating "risk illiteracy" among doctors and patients will lead to better health care decision making.Contrary to popular opinion, one of the main problems in providing uniformly excellent health care is not lack of money but lack of knowledge -- on the part of both doctors and patients. The studies in this book show that many doctors and most patients do not understand the available medical evidence. Both patients and doctors are "risk illiterate" -- frequently unable to tell the difference between actual risk and relative risk. Further, unwarranted disparity in treatment decisions is the rule rather than the exception in the United States and Europe. All of this contributes to much wasted spending in health care.The contributors to Better Doctors, Better Patients, Better Decisions investigate the roots of the problem, from the emphasis in medical research on technology and blockbuster drugs to the lack of education for both doctors and patients. They call for a new, more enlightened health care, with better medical education, journals that report study outcomes completely and transparently, and patients in control of their personal medical records, not afraid of statistics ...

  

Heuristics and the Law

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Gerd Gigerenzer (Editor)

Heuristics and the Law

Editura: MIT PR

Anul aparitiei: 2006

Experts in law, psychology, and economics explore the power of "fast and frugal" heuristics in the creation and implementation of lawIn recent decades, the economists' concept of rational choice has dominated legal reasoning. And yet, in practical terms, neither the lawbreakers the law addresses nor officers of the law behave as the hyperrational beings postulated by rational choice. Critics of rational choice and believers in "fast and frugal heuristics" propose another approach: using certain formulations or general principles (heuristics) to help navigate in an environment that is not a well-ordered setting with an occasional disturbance, as described in the language of rational choice, but instead is fundamentally uncertain or characterized by an unmanageable degree of complexity. This is the intuition behind behavioral law and economics. In Heuristics and the Law, experts in law, psychology, and economics explore the conceptual and practical power of the heuristics approach in law. They discuss legal theory; modeling and predicting the problems the law purports to solve; the process of making law, in the legislature or in the courtroom; the application of existing law in the ...

  

Bounded Rationality: The Adaptive Toolbox

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Gerd Gigerenzer (Editor)

Bounded Rationality: The Adaptive Toolbox

Editura: MIT PR

Anul aparitiei: 2002

In a complex and uncertain world, humans and animals make decisions under the constraints of limited knowledge, resources, and time. Yet models of rational decision making in economics, cognitive science, biology, and other fields largely ignore these real constraints and instead assume agents with perfect information and unlimited time. About forty years ago, Herbert Simon challenged this view with his notion of "bounded rationality." Today, bounded rationality has become a fashionable term used for disparate views of reasoning.This book promotes bounded rationality as the key to understanding how real people make decisions. Using the concept of an "adaptive toolbox," a repertoire of fast and frugal rules for decision making under uncertainty, it attempts to impose more order and coherence on the idea of bounded rationality. The contributors view bounded rationality neither as optimization under constraints nor as the study of people's reasoning fallacies. The strategies in the adaptive toolbox dispense with optimization and, for the most part, with calculations of probabilities and utilities. The book extends the concept of bounded rationality from cognitive tools to emotions; it ...

  

Empire of Chance: How Probability Changed Science

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Gerd Gigerenzer (Author)

Empire of Chance: How Probability Changed Science and Everyday Life

Editura: CAMBRIDGE UNIV PR

Anul aparitiei: 1990

This book tells how quantitative ideas of chance have transformed the natural and social sciences as well as everyday life over the past three centuries. A continuous narrative connects the earliest application of probability and statistics in gambling and insurance to the most recent forays into law, medicine, polling, and baseball. Separate chapters explore the theoretical and methodological impact on biology, physics, and psychology. In contrast to the literature on the mathematical development of probability and statistics, this book centers on how these technical innovations recreated our conceptions of nature, mind, and society.

  

Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious

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Gerd Gigerenzer (Author)

Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious

Editura: TANTOR MEDIA INC

Anul aparitiei: 2007

Gerd Gigerenzer is one of the researchers of behavioral intuition responsible for the science behind

  

Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious

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Gerd Gigerenzer (Author)

Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious

Editura: TANTOR MEDIA INC

Anul aparitiei: 2007

Gerd Gigerenzer is one of the researchers of behavioral intuition responsible for the science behind

  

Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious

Stoc anticariat
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Gerd Gigerenzer (Author)

Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious

Editura: TANTOR MEDIA INC

Anul aparitiei: 2007

Gerd Gigerenzer is one of the researchers of behavioral intuition responsible for the science behind Malcolm Gladwell's bestseller Blink. Gladwell showed us how snap decisions often yield better results than careful analysis. Now, Gigerenzer explains why our intuition is such a powerful decision-making tool. Drawing on a decade of research at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Gigerenzer demonstrates that our gut feelings are actually the result of unconscious mental processes-processes that apply rules of thumb that we've derived from our environment and prior experiences. The value of these unconscious rules lies precisely in their difference from rational analysis-they take into account only the most useful bits of information rather than attempting to evaluate all possible factors. By examining various decisions we make-how we choose a spouse, a stock, a medical procedure, or the answer to a million-dollar game show question-Gigerenzer shows how gut feelings not only lead to good practical decisions but also underlie the moral choices that make our society function. In the tradition of Blink and Freakonomics, Gut Feelings is an exploration of the myriad influences ...

  

Intuiţia. Inteligenţa inconştientului.

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Gerd Gigerenzer

Intuiţia. Inteligenţa inconştientului.

Editura: Curtea Veche

Anul aparitiei: 2012

Întâmpini dificultăţi în luarea deciziilor? Îţi doreşti multe opţiuni, dar atunci când le ai, ţi-e încă şi mai dificil să acţionezi? Te întrebi mereu dacă ai luat „decizia corectă“? În această carte incitantă, Gerd Gigerenzer ne împărtăşeşte secretul pentru a lua cele mai bune decizii. Contrar opiniei generale, acesta nu constă în a aduna cât mai multe informaţii în legătură cu ceea ce te preocupă, ci, din contră, de a te debarasa de ele, accesându-ţi în acest fel resursele creative inconştiente şi intuind ceea ce trebuie făcut. Dr. Gigerenzer, ale cărui cercetări de anvergură includ studii referitoare la cum funcţionează intuiţia umană atunci când vine vorba de investiţii, ne învaţă cum să intrăm în contact cu acea latură latentă care se bazează pe cunoaşterea nemijlocită a realităţii, prin observarea directă a situaţiilor, obiectelor şi a fenomenelor. V-aţi întrebat vreodată cum funcţionează intuiţia? Spre deosebire de regulile logicii, intuiţia a evoluat de-a lungul timpului tocmai pentru a putea ajuta individul să se adapteze la mediu. Accesibilă şi plină de spirit, această lucrare ...

  

Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions

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Gerd Gigerenzer (Author)

Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions

Editura: PENGUIN GROUP

Anul aparitiei: 2015

A new eye-opener on how we can make better decisions--by the author of Gut Feelings In this age of big data we often trust that expert analysis--whether it's about next year's stock market or a person's risk of getting cancer--is accurate. But, as risk expert Gerd Gigerenzer reveals in his latest book, Risk Savvy, most of us, including doctors, lawyers, and financial advisors, often misunderstand statistics, leaving us misinformed and vulnerable to exploitation. Yet there's hope. In Risk Savvy, Gigerenzer gives us an essential guide to the science of good decision making, showing how ordinary people can make better decisions for their money, their health, and their families. Here, Gigerenzer delivers the surprising conclusion that the best results often come from considering less information and listening to your gut.

  

Simply Rational: Decision Making in the Real World

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Gerd Gigerenzer (Author)

Simply Rational: Decision Making in the Real World

Editura: OXFORD UNIV PR

Anul aparitiei: 2015

Statistical illiteracy can have an enormously negative impact on decision making. This volume of collected papers brings together applied and theoretical research on risks and decision making across the fields of medicine, psychology, and economics. Collectively, the essays demonstrate why the frame in which statistics are communicated is essential for broader understanding and sound decision making, and that understanding risks and uncertainty has wide-reaching implications for daily life. Gerd Gigerenzer provides a lucid review and catalog of concrete instances of heuristics, or rules of thumb, that people and animals rely on to make decisions under uncertainty, explaining why these are very often more rational than probability models. After a critical look at behavioral theories that do not model actual psychological processes, the book concludes with a call for a "heuristic revolution" that will enable us to understand the ecological rationality of both statistics and heuristics, and bring a dose of sanity to the study of rationality.

  

Better Doctors, Better Patients, Better Decisions:

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Gerd Gigerenzer (Editor)

Better Doctors, Better Patients, Better Decisions: Envisioning Health Care 2020

Editura: MIT PR

Anul aparitiei: 2013

How eliminating "risk illiteracy" among doctors and patients will lead to better health care decision making.Contrary to popular opinion, one of the main problems in providing uniformly excellent health care is not lack of money but lack of knowledge -- on the part of both doctors and patients. The studies in this book show that many doctors and most patients do not understand the available medical evidence. Both patients and doctors are "risk illiterate" -- frequently unable to tell the difference between actual risk and relative risk. Further, unwarranted disparity in treatment decisions is the rule rather than the exception in the United States and Europe. All of this contributes to much wasted spending in health care.The contributors to Better Doctors, Better Patients, Better Decisions investigate the roots of the problem, from the emphasis in medical research on technology and blockbuster drugs to the lack of education for both doctors and patients. They call for a new, more enlightened health care, with better medical education, journals that report study outcomes completely and transparently, and patients in control of their personal medical records, not afraid of statistics ...

  
 
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